Publications

OSPREI Model Development

The following papers are the essential resources for the details of OSPREI and the individual component models.

OSPREI

1. Kay+ 2022 Kay, C., Mays, M. L., & Collado-Vega, Y. M., OSPREI: A coupled approach to modeling CME-driven space weather with automatically generated, user-friendly outputs. Space Weather, 20, e2021SW002914 (2022). This is the primary OSPREI reference. It presents the first full coupling of the three components and the standardized outputs. It includes the PARADE and PUP updates to ANTEATR, but not the MEOW-HiSS integration.

ForeCAT

1. Kay+ 2015 Kay, C., Opher, M., & Evans, R. M., Global Trends of CME Deflections Based on CME and Solar Parameters. ApJ, 805, 168 (2015). This is the primary ForeCAT reference. It presents the development of the forces acting upon the 3D torus shape and how that influences the coronal motion.
2. Kay+ 2013 Kay, C., Opher, M., & Evans, R. M., Forecasting a Coronal Mass Ejection's Altered Trajectory: ForeCAT. ApJ, 775, 5 (2013). This is the original proof of concept for ForeCAT, a 2D (even more) toy model showing the effects of the background magnetic field on a CME's motion. The work is still correct but it is an old, outdated reference so please reference the 2015 paper instead.

ANTEATR

1. Kay+ 2023 Kay, C., Nieves-Chinchilla, T., Hofmeister, S. J., Palmerio, E., & Ledvina, V. E., A series of advances in analytic interplanetary CME modeling. Space Weather, 21, e2023SW003647 (2023). This is the most recent version of ANTEATR and incorporates several major updates. First, the drag is calculated slightly differently to make use of the new ability to couple with a non-uniform background (MEOW-HiSS). Second, we have integrated FIDO into ANTEATR so that the CME continues evolving as it propagates over the spacecraft.
2. Kay+ 2022 (ANTEATR-PUP) Kay, C., Nieves-Chinchilla, T., Hofmeister, S. J., & Palmerio, E., Beyond basic drag in interplanetary CME modeling: Effects of solar wind pileup and high-speed streams. Space Weather, 20, e2022SW003165 (2022). This work introduce the ability to have ANTEATR simulate a CME-driven sheath. The sheath model is analogous to what was used in FIDO-SIT, but now the sheath accumulates over the interplanetary journey instead of simply being approximately reconstructed upon arrival.
3. Kay+ 2021 (ANTEATR-PARADE) Kay, C., & Nieves-Chinchilla, T., Modeling interplanetary expansion and deformation of CMEs with ANTEATR-PARADE: Relative contribution of different forces. JGR: Space Physics, 126, e2020JA028911 (2021). This is the first major update to ANTEATR, which changes it from using a simple torus shape to an actual flux rope model. The internal properties are now specified and the magnetic and thermal force are used (in additon to the drag) to determine the expansion and deformation of a CME in interplanetary space.
4. Kay+ 2017 Kay, C., & Gopalswamy, N., The effects of uncertainty in initial CME input parameters on deflection, rotation, Bz, and arrival time predictions. JGR: Space Physics, 123, 7220–7240 (2018). This is the first ANTEATR paper, though the focus is more on ensemble modeling with ForeCAT and FIDO. ANTEATR was a bit of a late addition to connect the two components and was essentially the most basic arrival time model possible (1D drag) but using the 3D geometry to determine the time of impact.

FIDO

1. Kay+ 2020 (FIDO-SIT) Kay, C., Nieves-Chinchilla, T., & Jian, L. K., FIDO-SIT: The first forward model for the in situ magnetic field of CME-driven sheaths. JGR: Space Physics, 125, e2019JA027423 (2020) This work introduce a CME driven sheath to the in situ profiles. The Rankine-Hugoniot equations are solved based on the properties at the time of impact and the standoff distance is approximated through empirical models. More recently, the sheath component has be been replaced by ANTEATR-PUP that simulates the actual development of the sheath rather than tacking it on afterward.
2. Kay+ 2017 Kay, C., & Gopalswamy, N., Using the coronal evolution to successfully forward model CMEs' in situ magnetic profiles. JGR: Space Physics, 122, 11,810–11,834 (2017). This is the first FIDO paper, which illustrates how we use the CME torus to orient a analytic flux rope and propagate it over a synthetic spacecraft.

MEOW-HiSS

1. Kay+ 2023 Kay, C., Nieves-Chinchilla, T., Hofmeister, S. J., & Palmerio, E., An efficient, time-dependent high speed stream model and application to solar wind forecasts. Space Weather, 21, e2023SW003443 (2023). This is an empirical HSS model that was designed to couple with OSPREI. This work presents the development of the empirical functions using a set of MHD simulations. We also show that MEOW-HiSS is also fairly successful at reproducing observed in situ profiles.

OSPREI in the Wild

Papers that use OSPREI results

1. Palmerio+ 2024 Palmerio, E., Kay, C., Al-Haddad et al., A coronal mass ejection encountered by four spacecraft within 1 au from the Sun: Ensemble modelling of propagation and magnetic structure. MNRAS, stae2606 (2024). Study of a CME impacting four radially-separated spacecraft. OSPREI ensembles are performed and the best fit at different satellites analyzed.
2. Ledvina+ 2023 Ledvina, V. E., Palmerio, E., Kay, C., et al., Modeling CME encounters at Parker Solar Probe with OSPREI: Dependence on photospheric and coronal conditions. A&A, 673, A96 (2023). Study of the effects of different magnetograms and source surface heights on OSPREI results.
3. Menezes+ 2023 Menezes, F., Valio, A., Netto, Y., et al. Trajectories of coronal mass ejection from solar-type stars. MNRAS, 522, 3, 4392–4403, (2023). Application of ForeCAT to stellar CMEs using reconstructed magnetograms for Kepler-63 and Kepler-411.
4. Palmerio+ 2021 Palmerio, E., Kay, C., Al-Haddad, N., et al., Predicting the Magnetic Fields of a Stealth CME Detected by Parker Solar Probe at 0.5 au. ApJ, 920, 65 (2021). Application of OSPREI to a stealth CME observed in situ by PSP.

LLAMAVERSE

1. Kay+ 2024 Kay, C., & Palmerio, E., Collection, Collation, and Comparison of 3D Coronal CME Reconstructions, Space Weather, 22, e2023SW003796, (2024). The first paper introducing the LLAMACoRe catalog and how it was created.

Other CK Projects

1. Kay+ 2024 Kay, C., Palmerio, E., Riley, P., et al., Updating Measures of CME Arrival Time Errors, Space Weather, 22, e2024SW003951, (2024). An update of Riley+ 2018 , which analyzes the arrival times predictions submitted to the CCMC's CME scoreboard.

LLAMACoRe Sources

The following is a list of the sources used to construct LLAMACoRe. We provide a link to either the refereed paper or the database itself.

1. AFFECTS (GCS/CAT) Bosman, E., Bothmer, V., Nisticò, G. et al., Three-Dimensional Properties of Coronal Mass Ejections from STEREO/SECCHI Observations. Sol Phys 281, 167–185 (2012). The paper describes the first version of the catalog, the most updated list is available here, which includes the GCS and CAT reconstruction lists that are included separately within LLAMACoRe, as well as the "total" CME list which just reports the times of many events.
2. Braga Braga, C. R., Dal Lago, A., Echer, E., et al., Pseudo-automatic Determination of Coronal Mass Ejections' Kinematics in 3D. ApJ 842, 134 (2017).
3. DONKI We link to the DONKI homepage at the CCMC at NASA GSFC. There is no particularly appropriate peer-reviewed paper for the DONKI database itself, only a few semi-relevant conference abstracts.
4. Gopalswamy Gopalswamy, N., Xie, H., Akiyama, S. et al., Major solar eruptions and high-energy particle events during solar cycle 24. Earth Planet Space 66, 104 (2014).
5. Gui Gui, B., Shen, C., Wang, Y. et al., Quantitative Analysis of CME Deflections in the Corona. Sol Phys 271, 111–139 (2011).
6. Isavnin Isavnin, A., Vourlidas, A. & Kilpua, E.K.J., Three-Dimensional Evolution of Erupted Flux Ropes from the Sun (2 – 20 R ⊙) to 1 AU. Sol Phys 284, 203–215 (2013).
7. Jang Jang, S., Moon, Y.-J., Kim, R.-S., et al., Comparison Between 2D and 3D Parameters of 306 Front-Side Halo CMEs From 2009 to 2013. ApJ 821, 95 (2016).
8. Kay Kay, C., & Gopalswamy, N., Using the coronal evolution to successfully forward model CMEs' in situ magnetic profiles. JGR Space Physics, 122, 11,810-11,834 (2017).
9. KINCAT Pluta, A., Mrotzek, N., Vourlidas, A., et al., Combined geometrical modelling and white-light mass determination of coronal mass ejections. A&A 623, A139 (2019) The KINCAT catalog is a part of the HELCATS program and also available online here.
10. Liewer Liewer, P. C., Hall, J. R., Howard, R. A., et al., Stereoscopic analysis of STEREO/SECCHI data for CME trajectory determination. JASTP. 73, 10, 1173-1186 (2011).
11. Majumdar Majumdar, S., Pant, V., Patel, R., & Banerjee, D., Connecting 3D Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections to Their Source Regions, ApJ, 889, 6 (2020).
12. Martinic Martinic, K., Dumbovic, M., Temmer, M., et al., Determination of CME orientation and consequences for their propagation. A&A, 679, A97 (2023).
13. Rodriguez Rodriguez, L., Mierla, M., Zhukov, A. N., et al., Linking Remote-Sensing and In Situ Observations of Coronal Mass Ejections Using STEREO. Solar Physics, 270, 561-573 (2011).
14. Sachdeva Sachdeva, N., Subramanian, P., Vourlidas, A. et al., CME Dynamics Using STEREO and LASCO Observations: The Relative Importance of Lorentz Forces and Solar Wind Drag. Sol Phys 292, 118 (2017).
15. Shen Shen, C., Wang, Y., Pan, Z., et al., Full-halo coronal mass ejections: Arrival at the Earth. JGR Space Physics, 119, 5107-5116 (2014).
16. Shi Shi, T., Wang, Y., Wan, L., et al., Predicting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections with the Graduated Cylidrical Shell and Drag Force Model. ApJ, 806, 271 (2015).
17. Temmer 2009 Temmer, M., Preiss, S., & Veronig, A. M., CME Projection Effects Studied with STEREO/COR and SOHO/LASCO. Solar Physics, 256, 183-199 (2009).
18. Temmer 2021 Temmer, M., Holzknecht, L., Dumbović, M., et al., Deriving CME Density From Remote Sensing Data and Comparison to In-Situ Measurements, JGR Space Physics, 126, e2020JA028380 (2021).
19. Wood Wood, B. E., Wu, C.-C., Lepping, R. P., et al., A STEREO Survey of Magnetic Cloud Coronal Mass Ejections Observed at Earth in 2008–2012. ApJS, 229, 29 (2017).
20. Zhong Zhong, Z., Shen, C., Mao, D., et al., Three-Dimensional Parameters of the Earth-Impacting CMEs Based on the GCS Model. Universe, 7, 10, 361 (2021).
21. Zhuang (GCS/ICC) Zhuang, B., Wang., Y., Shen, C., et al., The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth, ApJ, 845, 117, (2017).

List of Acronyms

CK enjoys coming up with a good model acronym. Here's what they mean: